Category Archives: Market Assessment

Commentary on Alberta’s November Announcements of a Capacity Market and Coal Phaseout Now Available

On November 23, the Government of Alberta announced its intention to create a capacity market within Alberta’s wholesale electricity market, and released a detailed Alberta Electricity System Operator recommendation paper titled Alberta’s Wholesale Electricity Market Transition Recommendation that provides background and support for the changes being made.
The Electricity Market Transition Report can be found here.

Power Advisory’s summary and commentary on the Government of Alberta announcements is available below.

download energy report

The following day, the Government announced it had concluded agreements with the coal-fired generation facility owners to cease operation by 2030. These developments are part of fundamentally defining a different path going forward for Alberta’s electricity sector than the one it has been following for almost the past 20 years.
The Coal-Fired Generation Agreement Announcement can be found here.

Power Advisory’s summary and commentary on the Capacity Market Recommendation report is available below.

download energy report

Power Advisory Summary of TriState RFP Winners

The various electric distribution companies and state agencies in Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island announced the results of the Clean Energy RFP Tuesday, indicating that contracts were being negotiated with six developers for about 460 MW.  The results are surprising as Power Advisory’s summary shows.

Please click here for Power Advisory’s summary of the Clean Energy RFP

Update on Pan-Canadian and Provincial Carbon Pricing

On October 3, the Government of Canada proposed a pan-Canadian pricing benchmark for carbon pollution. The announcement came as Environment Minster Catherine McKenna met with provincial counterparts to discuss coordination of the Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change, and the Paris climate agreement was officially ratified.

Power Advisory has reviewed the announcement and provided our summary and commentary.

Power Advisory Carbon Pricing Commentary.

Power Advisory presents a case study on Ontario retail price impacts

On October 4th Travis Lusney, Director at Power Advisory, presented a case study on Ontario retail price impacts to the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) at the CERI 2016 Electricity Conference in Calgary.

This presentation provided a case study on Ontario’s Regulated Price Plan (RPP) and the impact on residential and small business consumers in the provinces.  The case study briefly reviewed the history of the RPP  and reasoning for the recent price escalations for consumers in the program.  A discussion on the benefits and drawbacks of the RPP approach was provided along with current changes under consideration.  The presentation also presented dynamic pricing concepts in electricity and examples from other jurisdictions.  Power Advisory provided commentary on the overall effectiveness of the RPP and Ontario’s retail price impacts.

For more information, please see the CERI 2016 Electricity Conference website

Alberta Announces Firm Target of 30% Renewable Energy by 2030

Today the Alberta Government announced a firm target of 30% renewable energy by 2030.  As part of this firm target, the government will support an additional 5,000 MW of renewable generation by 2030 (see here).  The 30% target had not previously been identified as a firm target, and prior indications had been that the support for renewables would be 4,200 MW by 2030.  As such, this announcement marks a strengthening of renewable targets for Alberta.

The 30% energy target will be achieved mainly through the Renewable Electricity Program (REP) that targets large-scale grid renewables.  The Government’s news release states that “the province will solicit enough investment in Alberta’s electricity system to meet the target, while ensuring projects come online in a way that does not impact grid reliability and is cost-effective”.  The government expects that $10.5B of investment in Alberta renewables will be supported through this initiative.

A few high-level details were released, re: the REP:

  • Projects to be based in Alberta;
  • Only new or expanded projects;
  • Projects must be 5 MW or greater;
  • Projects must meet the Natural Resources Canada definition of renewable sources.

Further details on how the REP will operate will be released later this year and will be based on recommendations provided by the AESO.  The Government is now working with AESO on detailed program design and remains on target to release details of the program in the coming months.

Work is also underway to improve Alberta’s rules around smaller-scale electricity generation, including micro-generation.  Government is engaging expert stakeholders on ways to make it easier for individual Albertans and communities to create their own renewable energy.  These small-scale generation initiatives along with energy efficiency programs are being developed under the auspices of the newly created Energy Efficiency Alberta organization.

Power Advisory leads consortium of renewable energy developers improvements to the connection assessment process in Ontario

Travis Lusney, Director at Power Advisory LLC (Power Advisory), was retained to be the technical lead for a consortium of over 20 potential Large Renewable Procurement (LRP) II participants representing different technology types (e.g., solar generation, on-shore wind generation, hydroelectric generation, and bioenergy).

As the technical lead, Power Advisory developed a new connection assessment process for the LRP II process and presented the proposed process with participating entities, including industry associations (i.e., Canadian Wind Association (CanWEA), Canadian Solar Industries Association (CanSIA), Ontario Waterpower Association (OWA), etc.). Power Advisory built consensus within the consortium by preparing technical briefings, leading group discussions and clearly understanding and incorporating individual entity’s needs.  The draft consortium positions were presented to the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO), who is overseeing the LRP II procurement and is the integrated system planner for Ontario.

Power Advisory was well positioned to be the technical lead for potential LRP II participants.  Travis Lusney is a former transmission power system planner and was a lead on the initial development of the Transmission Availability Test (TAT) and Distribution Availability Test (DAT), the connection assessment processes first used in the Feed-In Tariff (FIT) program, and subsequently used in the LRP I process.  Since joining Power Advisory, Travis has been an essential resource for a wide variety of clients seeking an understanding of the Ontario power system and developing a strategy for project development.  Travis’ deep knowledge of the Ontario power system and extensive understanding of the opportunities and shortcomings of connection capability are valuable resources for leading changes to the LRP II connection assessment process.

Power Advisory has a history of successfully leading and advising consortium of developers on a wide range of electricity sector matters.  Power Advisory successfully negotiated changes to the IESO market rules and IESO contracts related to integration of variable transmission connected renewable generation into the IESO electricity market.

For further information, please contact Travis at tlusney@poweradvisoryllc.com

Massachusetts Senate Passed Clean Energy Bill

On June 30, 2016, the Massachusetts Senate passed energy bill S.2372.  The energy bill is part of an effort to diversify the state’s energy mix and comply with greenhouse gas emissions reduction requirements.  The energy bill is expected to have a significant impact on the long-term energy policy and opportunities for renewable energy development.

Power Advisory Review of Clean Energy Generation Senate Bill

North American Leaders Set Goal for 50% Clean Energy by 2025

North American heads of state met yesterday in Ottawa to commit to generating half of the continent’s electricity from “clean energy” sources by 2025.   These clean energy sources include renewable energy, nuclear generation, fossil fuel plants that use carbon capture and storage, and energy efficiency.  Currently, 37% of North American electricity is provided by clean energy sources.  In the U.S. which represents about 75% of total North American generation, only about 33% electricity generation is from renewable and nuclear facilities as shown in the figure below.  In stark contrast, about 80% of Canada’s electricity is provided by clean energy sources, with hydro representing about ¾ of this.

US Generation by Type 2015

Particularly troubling for the U.S. are the pending retirements of the following nuclear units: Clinton, Diablo Canyon, Fort Calhoun, Fitzpatrick, Oyster Creek, Pilgrim and Quad Cities. The table below indicates the location, rated capacity and 2015 annual electricity output of these units.  In 2015 they generated almost 64 TWh, representing 1.6 percent of total U.S. utility generation.  Clearly their loss will have a significant impact on the investment required for the U.S to achieve this 50% clean energy goal. Equally important are the implications of the loss of this non-carbon emitting generation on the cost of achieving the emission reductions required by the Clean Power Plan.  With the stay of the Clean Power Plan, a “policy bridge” to support this generation would appear to be appropriate.

U.S. Nuclear Generating Units Scheduled for Retirement

USNuclearRetirementSchedule20160630

According to the recently released 2016 Annual Energy Outlook about 43% of U.S. electric generation will be produced by such clean energy sources by 2025, with a major contributor to this growth the additional renewable energy spawned by the extension of the production tax credits.  This gap suggests that additional policy support will be required to achieve the 50% goal.  Additional clean energy from Canada, such as several New England states are considering, could assist the US in achieving its target.