Update to MRP Review: As summer winds down and so does Ontario demand from today onwards, Power Advisory will publish a simplified MRP Review in rotation with the routine MRP Review every other week. The routine MRP Review will also cover two of the prior week’s data.
Day-Ahead and Real-Time Prices
Last week, similar to the previous week, posted some of the lowest prices since the launch of the renewed market. These low prices are mainly reflective of the drop in cooling load as temperatures become cooler. The weekly average hourly day-ahead OZP was $36.62/MWh, while the real-time OZP was $31.99/MWh. There were no real-time hourly OZP spikes greater than $200/MWh, with the highest price hitting $89.73/MWh (on August 28). The peak Ontario Demand last week was 17,804 MW (on August 25, HE 18) which is about 3,000 MW lower than the prior week’s peak demand. The demand on August 28 – when OZP hit its highest level – was 12,722 MW at HE 3. There continues to be large price spreads between DAM OZP and RT OZP.
OR Prices
Both real-time and day-ahead Operating Reserve (OR) prices are very low relative to previous weeks and historical averages. The average weekly day-ahead 10S price was $4.04/MW, while it was lower at $1.35/MW in real-time. The most notable trend last week is the very high day-ahead 10S price spike of $36.56/MWh (coincident with one of the day-ahead and real-time OZP spikes last week).
The highest day-ahead OR price was $15/MWh which occurred on August 30, HE 19. For reference, the day-ahead energy price was $46.90/MWh at this time (also the peak price for that day).
Real-time OR prices were low (i.e., near $0/MWh) for several hours of the week with OR prices exhibiting less volatility compared to energy prices. The highest real-time OR price was $36.56/MWh on August 26, HE 21.
Zonal Prices and Congestion
Last week, congestion was minor across the zones. The Niagara zone saw some hours of negative congestion, while both the Ottawa and East zone saw more hours of positive congestion and at a higher magnitude. Similar to most other weeks since the renewed market launched, the Northwest zone saw negative congestion in the day-ahead timeframe. Congestion in the Ottawa zone and the East zone saw a high of $13.96/MWh and $3.51/MWh respectively, on August 31, HE 17. For the Niagara zone, the most extreme negative congestion was -$2.69/MWh on August26. The congestion in the Northwest zone ranged from $0.27/MWh to -$1.13/MWh.
Real-time congestion in the Northwest remains volatile while in the Northeast it was minimal last week. There were several hours of congestion in the Northwest, with moderate swings from positive to negative congestion hours. Similar to prior weeks, these swings in congestion tend to occur in consecutive hours. Last week, these swings occurred on August 27, August 30, and August 31. The Northeast zone saw very minor negative congestion (a low of -$1.96/MWh) only on August 25, HE 17.
Last week, no real-time congestion was observed in the Ottawa and East zones. The Niagara zone saw minor negative congestion with a low of -$4.99/MWh on August 28, HE 3.
