Update to MRP Review: As mentioned in last week’s review, this MRP review will cover data from the previous two weeks.
Day-Ahead and Real-Time Price Trends by Components and by Zone
Day-Ahead (DA) and Real-Time (RT) zonal prices in the last two weeks decreased compared to the previous three weeks. DA zonal prices ranged from $36/MWh (Niagara) to $39/MWh (Ottawa), while RT zonal prices ranged between $37/MWh (Niagara) to $40/MWh (Ottawa). Prices overall in the IESO-Administered Market (IAM) have declined significantly from July and early August.
The DA and RT price by zone and by component for the past two weeks are shown below.
Day-Ahead and Real-Time Prices
For the last two weeks, the average hourly day-ahead OZP was $37.37/MWh, while the real-time OZP was $38.92/MWh. There were three real-time hourly OZP spikes greater than $200/MWh, with the highest price hitting $303.46/MWh (on September 6). The peak Ontario Demand last week was 19,695 MW (on September 3, HE 18). The peak demand on September 6 – when OZP hit its highest level – was 15,799 MW at HE 20. There continues to be large price spreads between DAM OZP and RT OZP.
OR Prices
Last week, there were several real-time Operating Reserve (OR) price spikes. The average weekly day-ahead 10S price was $5.01/MW, while it was higher at $5.90/MW in real-time. The most notable trend last week is the very high real-time 10S price spike of $249.30/MWh (coincident with the highest real-time OZP spike last week).
The highest day-ahead OR price was $29.39/MWh which occurred on September 5, HE 19. For reference, the day-ahead energy price was $59.78/MWh at this time.
Real-time OR prices were low (i.e., near $0/MWh) for several hours of the week with OR prices exhibiting less volatility compared to energy prices. There were a few high real-time OR prices towards the end of last week mainly occurring in peak evening hours. The highest real-time OR price was $249.30/MWh on September 6, HE 20.
Zonal Prices and Congestion
Last week, congestion was minor across the zones. The West, Southwest, and Niagara zones saw some hours of negative congestion, while both the Ottawa and East zone saw hours of positive congestion. Similar to most other weeks since the renewed market launched, the Northeast and Northwest zones saw negative congestion in the day-ahead timeframe. Congestion in the Ottawa zone and the East zone saw a high of $13.96/MWh and $3.51/MWh respectively, on August 31, HE 17. For the Niagara zone, the most extreme negative congestion was -$5.31/MWh on September 7, HE 22. The West zone saw a single hour of congestion of -$2.55/MW on September 5, HE 17 and the Southwest zone saw a low of -$0.31/MWh. The congestion in the Northwest zone ranged from $0.27/MWh to -$37.95/MWh while for the Northeast ranged from 0 to -$5.22/MWh. The Southwest, Northeast, and Northwest zones simultaneously observed congestion on September 3, HE 16 to HE 19. During these hours, that is when the peak demand of the past two weeks was observed.
Real-time zonal prices in the Northwest and Northeast remain volatile – with the Northwest seeing large swings from positive to negative congestion. There were several hours of positive congestion for the Northwest, with a large swing from positive to negative congestion hours occurring on the evening hours of August 30. The Northwest zone’s congestion ranged from -$101.46/MWh to $136.16/MWh. The Northeast zone saw moderate negative congestion mainly on September 3. The Northeast zone observed congestion with a low of -$14.24/MWh.
In real time, the Niagara and Southwest zone observed negative real-time congestion. The negative congestion in the Southwest zone was minor reaching a low of -$1.08/MWh close to the peak real-time OZP observed in the last two weeks. The Niagara zone observed several hours of negative congestion mainly on the night to early morning hours of September 5 to September 6 and September 6 to September 7. The Niagara zone saw a low of -$9.41/MWh on September 7, HE 4.
