Day-Ahead and Real-Time Price Trends by Components and by Zone
Day-Ahead (DA) zonal prices in the last week increased compared to the previous three weeks while Real-Time (RT) zonal prices decreased compared to the previous three weeks. DA zonal prices ranged from $42/MWh (Niagara) to $46/MWh (Northwest), while RT zonal prices ranged between $34/MWh (Niagara) to $41/MWh (Northwest). Prices overall in the IESO-Administered Market (IAM) have declined significantly from July and early August.
The DA and RT price by zone and by component for the past week is shown below.
Day-Ahead and Real-Time Prices
Last week, the average hourly day-ahead OZP was $43.95/MWh, while the real-time OZP was $35.62/MWh. There were no real-time hourly OZP spikes greater than $200/MWh. The highest real-time OZP observed was $121.94/MWh. The peak Ontario Demand last week was 18,520 MW (on September 14, HE 18). The peak demand on September 14 – when OZP hit its highest level – was 18,493 MW at HE 17 (hour prior to peak demand observed last week).
OR Prices
Last week, there were several real-time Operating Reserve (OR) price spikes. The average weekly day-ahead 10S price was $9.39/MW, while it was lower at $3.83/MW in real-time. The most notable trend last week is the high real-time 10S price spikes in the day-ahead and real-time markets throughout the week.
The highest day-ahead OR price was $55.98/MWh which occurred on September 10, HE 19. For reference, the coincident day-ahead energy price was $90.38/MWh (which was also the highest day-ahead OZP last week). Daily peaks in day-ahead OR prices closely followed peaks in day-ahead OZP.
Real-time OR prices were low (low of $0.10/MWh) for several hours of the week with OR prices exhibiting less volatility compared to energy prices. The highest real-time OR price was $76.79/MWh on September 12, HE 18.
Zonal Prices and Congestion
Last week, congestion was observed in the Niagara, Northwest, and West zones. The West zones observed the most congestion followed by the Northwest and the Niagara zones. Congestion in the West zone saw a low of -$20.15/MWh on September 8, HE 20. The Niagara zone saw minor congestion with a low of -$3.24/MWh on September 8, HE 24. The Northwest zone saw mainly positive congestion with a high of $9.75/MWh on September 11, HE 2.
Real-time zonal prices in the Northwest remain volatile with the Northeast seeing very minor congestion. There were several of hours of mainly positive congestion for the Northwest with a high of $296.19/MWh on September 8. HE 19. The Northeast zone saw five hours of negative congestion with a low of - $1.87/MWh.
In real time, the Niagara and West zone observed negative real-time congestion. The negative congestion in the Niagara zone was minor reaching a low of -$3.02/MWh. The West zone observed a couple of hours of negative congestion with a low of -$19.83/MWh on September 8, HE 18.
