Day-Ahead and Real-Time Price Trends by Components and by Zone
Day-Ahead (DA) zonal prices in the last week increased compared to the previous three weeks while Real-Time (RT) zonal prices decreased compared to the previous three weeks. DA zonal prices ranged from $61/MWh (Niagara) to $75/MWh (Northwest), while RT zonal prices ranged between $45/MWh (Niagara) to $59/MWh (Northwest).
The DA and RT price by zone and by component for the past week is shown below.
Day-Ahead and Real-Time Prices
Last week, the average hourly day-ahead OZP was $71.83/MWh, while the real-time OZP was $56.62/MWh. There were three real-time hourly OZP spikes greater than $200/MWh. The highest real-time OZP observed was $298.53/MWh. The peak Ontario Demand last week was 19,464 MW (on September 22, HE 17). The peak demand on September 25 – when OZP hit its highest level – was 17,538 MW at HE 15.
OR Prices
Last week, there were several real-time Operating Reserve (OR) price spikes. The average weekly day-ahead 10S price was $17.28/MW, while it was lower at $9.45/MW in real-time.
The highest day-ahead OR price was $102.45/MWh which occurred on September 23, HE 18. For reference, the coincident day-ahead energy price was $143.86/MWh.
Real-time OR prices exhibited less volatility compared to energy prices. The highest real-time OR price was $197.48/MWh, also at the same hour as the peak real-time OZP last week (September25, HE 15).
Zonal Prices and Congestion
Last week, congestion in day-ahead was observed in the Niagara, Northwest, and Southwest zones. The Niagara zones observed the most congestion followed by the Northwest and the Southwest zones. Congestion in the Niagara zone saw a low of -$47.47/MWh on September 28, HE 17. The Northwest zone saw both minor negative and positive congestion with a high of $8.47/MWh on September 25, HE 23. The Southwest zone saw minor congestion with a low of -$0.24/MWh on September 25, HE 21.
Real-time zonal prices in the Northwest remain volatile with the Northeast seeing very minor congestion. There were several hours of negative and positive congestion for the Northwest with a high of $65.06/MWh on September 27, HE 9 and low of -$15.72/MWh on September 25, HE 15. The Northeast zone saw six hours of negative congestion with a low of -$4.74/MWh on September 22, HE 17.
In real time, the Niagara, Southwest, Essa, and West zones also observed real-time congestion. The negative congestion in Niagara reached a low of -$106.12/MWh. The Southwest zone saw a high of $79.77/MWh of positive congestion. As shown in the figure below, the Essa and West zone observed peak congestion at the same two hours as congestion observed in the Southwest zone (on September 25, HE 11 and HE 12). The Essa zone observed a high of $6.08/MWh and the West zone observed a high of $30.21/MWh.
