Day-Ahead and Real-Time Price Trends by Components and by Zone
The last two weeks saw Day-Ahead (DA) and Real-Time (RT) zonal prices move higher compared to the previous period. DA zonal prices ranged from $53/MWh (Niagara) to $64/MWh (Northwest), while RT zonal prices ranged between $48/MWh (Niagara) to $63/MWh (Northwest). Notably, the Northwest zone was the highest priced zone across the IESO-Administered Market (IAM) – a contrast to most weeks since renewed market launched and prices in the Northwest were lower than other zones.
The DA and RT price by zone and by component for the past two weeks is shown below.
Day-Ahead and Real-Time Prices
The average hourly day-ahead OZP was $61.96/MWh over the two weeks, while the real-time OZP was $58.24/MWh. There were 10 real-time hourly OZP spikes greater than $200/MWh, with the highest price hitting $329.68/MWh (on October 5, HE 18). One cause for the price spike on Sunday October 5 was the net decline in inexpensive imports from the previous hour (simultaneously, there is an increase in exports to Michigan). The peak Ontario Demand over the last two weeks was 19,464 MW (on September 22, HE 17). The peak demand on October 5 – when OZP hit its highest level – was 19,079 MW at HE 18.
OR Prices
There were multiple real-time Operating Reserve (OR) price spikes in the last two weeks. The average weekly day-ahead 10S price was $13.12/MW, while it was $11.42/MW in real-time. The most notable trend was the four high real-time daily 10S price spikes from October 2 to October 5 – ranging from $221/MWh to $298/MWh. All of the price spikes occurred in the evening hours. One of the price spikes was coincident with the highest real-time OZP spikes observed last week.
The highest day-ahead OR price was $105.99/MWh, which occurred on September 29, HE 18. For reference, the day-ahead energy price was $141.80/MWh at this time.
Real-time OR prices were low (i.e., near $0.09/MWh) for many hours. As mentioned previously, there were a few high real-time OR prices towards the end of last week, which were coincident with real time OZP spikes. The highest real-time OR price was $298.37/MWh on October 5, HE 18.
Zonal Prices and Congestion
For the last two weeks, congestion was high in the Northwest and Niagara zones in the day-ahead time frame. The Southwest and Toronto zones saw some hours of minor negative congestion. The highest congestion price in the Northwest zone was $52.13/MWh (on October 5, HE 23). Conversely, congestion in the Niagara zone was negative for consecutive hours, with a low of -$47.47/MWh.
Real-time zonal prices in the Northwest zone remain volatile – with the Northwest seeing frequent hours of positive congestion with some swings to negative congestion, especially in the last week. The Northwest saw a low of -$115.83/MWh and a peak positive congestion of $182.97/MWh. The Northeast zone also observed its peak congestion on the same hours as the Northwest zone. The Northeast zone observed three hours of positive congestion and several hours of minor negative congestion (low of -$4.74/MWh).
In real time, the Niagara (and Northwest) zone was the most congested. The Niagara zone reached a low of -$157.07/MWh and a high of $10.34/MWh. The Essa, Southwest, and West zones experienced positive congestion on September 25, HE 12 and on September 29, HE 3. Congestion in the Southwest zone hit $79.77/MWh at its highest, while congestion in the Essa zone hit $174.30/MWh. Congestion in Ottawa zone hit $38.18/MWh and in the East zone hit $56.16/MWh on October 5, HE 20 – with both of these zones likely impacted by exports into Quebec. It is likely with winter approaching there will be increased hours of congestion in the Ottawa and East zone as Quebec is winter-peaking and will rely on increased exports from Ontario. There were a couple hours of minor congestion throughout the week in the Essa, Southwest, and Toronto zones.
