Day-Ahead and Real-Time Price Trends by Components and by Zone
Day-Ahead (DA) zonal prices in the last week decreased compared to the previous three weeks while Real-Time (RT) zonal prices increased compared to the previous three weeks. DA zonal prices ranged from $52/MWh (Niagara) to $60/MWh (Northwest), while RT zonal prices ranged between $54/MWh (Niagara) to $64/MWh (Northwest).
The DA and RT price by zone and by component for the past week is shown below.
Day-Ahead and Real-Time Prices
Last week, the average hourly day-ahead OZP was $56.66/MWh, while the real-time OZP was $57.94/MWh. There were 11 real-time hourly OZP spikes greater than $200/MWh. The highest real-time OZP observed was $454.66/MWh. The peak Ontario Demand last week was 20,335 MW (on October 6, HE 17). The peak demand on October 10 – when OZP hit its highest level – was 16,450 MW at HE 18.
OR Prices
Last week, there were several real-time Operating Reserve (OR) price spikes. The average weekly day-ahead 10S price was $17.28/MW, while it was lower at $9.45/MW in real-time.
The highest day-ahead OR price was $121.53/MWh which occurred on October 8, HE 18. For reference, the coincident day-ahead energy price was $104.42/MWh.
Real-time OR prices exhibited less volatility compared to energy prices. The highest real-time OR price was $422.11/MWh, also at the same hour as the peak real-time OZP last week (October10, HE 18).
Zonal Prices and Congestion
Last week, congestion in day-ahead was observed in the Niagara, Northwest, Northeast, Ottawa, West, and East zones. Congestion in the Niagara zone and the West zone saw a low of -$11.03/MWh and -$35.46/MWh (on October 9, HE 20) respectively. The Northwest, Northeast, and Ottawa zones saw a high of $52.15/MWh, $38.56/MWh, and $60.78/MWh respectively. The East zone observed minor congestion.
There were several hours of negative and positive congestion for the Northwest with a high of $613.11/MWh on October 9, HE 21 and low of -$105.79/MWh on October 10, HE 18. The Northeast zone saw moderate negative and positive congestion with a high of $14.77/MWh on October 9, HE 1 and a low of -$26.29/MWh on October 10, HE 18.
In real time, the Niagara, Southwest, East, Ottawa, and West zones also observed real-time congestion. The negative congestion in the Niagara, West, and Southwest zone reached a low of -$4.97/MWh, -$21.91/MWh, and -$0.95/MWh respectively. The Ottawa and East zone saw coincident positive congestion and a high of $30.40/MWh (on October 11, HE 14) and $19.03/MWh (on October 7, HE 8) respectively.
