Ontario Market Renewal Program: Insights

As Ontario’s electricity market undergoes its most significant transformation in decades, Power Advisory is tracking the implementation of the IESO’s Market Renewal Program (MRP) in real time. Our weekly summaries provide timely, data-driven analysis of key trends, price signals, and market impacts. Power Advisory will help stakeholders navigate the evolving landscape with clarity and confidence. Whether you're a market participant, policymaker, or energy consumer, these updates offer grounded insights to support strategic decision-making in the new market environment.

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Market Renewal Program Reports

MRP Market Review Week 14: Comparing July 2025 and 2024 prices and Congestion Makes an Appearance in the Ottawa Zone

August 12, 2025
By 
Brady Yauch & Brendan Callery & Nadiha Khan

Power Advisory has undertaken a review of energy prices in July 2025 compared to the same month last year to better understand if pricing outcomes in the renewed market broadly align with the legacy market.

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MRP Market Review Week 13: Energy Emergency Notice Issued and Heat Wave Price Spikes

August 6, 2025
By 
Brady Yauch & Brendan Callery & Nadiha Khan

Both the Day-Ahead (DA) and Real-Time (RT) zonal prices increased compared to the previous week. DA zonal prices ranged from $60/MWh (Northwest) to $91/MWh (Ottawa), while RT zonal prices ranged between $14/MWh (Northwest) and $89/MWh (Ottawa). In both the Northeast and Northwest zones, congestion and losses increased in RT as compared to DA.

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MRP Week 12 Review: Blocked Dispatches Up in June, Real-time Prices Saw a High of ~$500/MWh Last Week

July 29, 2025
By 
Brady Yauch & Brendan Callery & Nadiha Khan

The IESO has published the Dispatch Deviation Report for June 2025, which indicates the highest number of monthly market interventions by the IESO since March 2022.

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MRP Review Week 11: A Closer Look at Two-Settlement and Comparing Prices in the Renewed Versus Legacy Market

July 22, 2025
By 
Brady Yauch & Brendan Callery & Nadiha Khan

Power Advisory undertook an analysis to better understand the implications of the new two-settlement system for merchant wind facilities in Ontario.

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MRP Week 10 Review: More West Zone Negative Congestion, OZP breaks $200/MWh Three Times

July 15, 2025
By 
Brady Yauch & Brendan Callery & Nadiha Khan

The most notable change in the renewed market last week occurred in the West zone. Last week, the Northwest, Northeast, and West zones experienced the most congestion during the day-ahead timeframe.

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MRP Week 9 Review: Data Issues, Blocked Dispatch Since MRP launch and West Zone Negative Congestion

July 8, 2025
By 
Brady Yauch & Brendan Callery & Nadiha Khan

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MRP Week 8 Review: Peak Demand, Forecast Errors and Price Spikes

July 2, 2025
By 
Brady Yauch & Brendan Callery & Nadiha Khan

The summer peak demand season has arrived – and peak prices along with it. There were 20 real-time Ontario Zonal Price (OZP) spikes greater than $200/MWh, with the highest price hitting $1,229.23/MWh.

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MRP Week 7 Review: West Zone Congestion Goes Negative

June 24, 2025
By 
Brady Yauch & Brendan Callery & Nadiha Khan

The most notable change in the renewed market last week occurred in the West zone. In contrast to most weeks since the renewed market was launched, the West zone experienced high levels of negative congestion in the day-ahead market – even greater than in other typically congested zones such as the Northwest and Northeast.

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MRP Week 6 Review: DAM OR Price Spike and Ongoing Congestion in the Northwest and Northeast

June 17, 2025
By 
Brady Yauch & Brendan Callery & Nadiha Khan

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MRP Week 5 Review: Extreme Negative Price in RT and Congestion in Niagara Zone

June 10, 2025
By 
Brady Yauch & Brendan Callery & Tyama Lyall

Power Advisory is moving forward with its weekly renewed market reviews based on feedback from a number of clients. The weekly timeframe has slightly adjusted and is now from Saturday to Sunday. This report adds a few days to cover a few days included in the transition from the previous weekly schedule to the new format (note that the old weekly schedule was based on MRP launching on a Thursday and went from Thursday to Wednesday).

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