Ontario Market Renewal Program: Insights

As Ontario’s electricity market undergoes its most significant transformation in decades, Power Advisory is tracking the implementation of the IESO’s Market Renewal Program (MRP) in real time. Our weekly summaries provide timely, data-driven analysis of key trends, price signals, and market impacts. Power Advisory will help stakeholders navigate the evolving landscape with clarity and confidence. Whether you're a market participant, policymaker, or energy consumer, these updates offer grounded insights to support strategic decision-making in the new market environment.

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Market Renewal Program Reports

MRP Week 8 Review: Peak Demand, Forecast Errors and Price Spikes

July 2, 2025
By 
Brady Yauch & Brendan Callery & Nadiha Khan

The summer peak demand season has arrived – and peak prices along with it. There were 20 real-time Ontario Zonal Price (OZP) spikes greater than $200/MWh, with the highest price hitting $1,229.23/MWh.

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MRP Week 7 Review: West Zone Congestion Goes Negative

June 24, 2025
By 
Brady Yauch & Brendan Callery & Nadiha Khan

The most notable change in the renewed market last week occurred in the West zone. In contrast to most weeks since the renewed market was launched, the West zone experienced high levels of negative congestion in the day-ahead market – even greater than in other typically congested zones such as the Northwest and Northeast.

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MRP Week 6 Review: DAM OR Price Spike and Ongoing Congestion in the Northwest and Northeast

June 17, 2025
By 
Brady Yauch & Brendan Callery & Nadiha Khan

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MRP Week 5 Review: Extreme Negative Price in RT and Congestion in Niagara Zone

June 10, 2025
By 
Brady Yauch & Brendan Callery & Tyama Lyall

Power Advisory is moving forward with its weekly renewed market reviews based on feedback from a number of clients. The weekly timeframe has slightly adjusted and is now from Saturday to Sunday. This report adds a few days to cover a few days included in the transition from the previous weekly schedule to the new format (note that the old weekly schedule was based on MRP launching on a Thursday and went from Thursday to Wednesday).

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MRP Week 4 Review: Energy Volatility Moderates While OR Prices Remain Elevated

May 30, 2025
By 
Brady Yauch & Brendan Callery & Tyama Lyall

The fourth full week of the post-Market Renewal Program (MRP) (“renewed market”) has passed. Overall, the magnitude of real-time price volatility was lower throughout the week, with fewer hours where prices moved significantly above the marginal cost of gas-fired generation. Overall, real-time pricing in the energy market over the past week was more aligned with historical pricing in the legacy market.

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MRP Week 3 Review: Day-ahead Market Failure and Ongoing Price Volatility in Real-Time

May 23, 2025
By 
Brady Yauch & Brendan Callery & Tyama Lyall

The third full week of the post-Market Renewal Program (MRP) (“renewed market”) has passed. The real-time market continues to experience significantly more volatility than the Day-Ahead Market (DAM) in both the energy and Operating Reserve (OR) markets, while a number of nodes posted extremely volatile Locational Marginal Prices (LMPs) during the week, particularly in real-time.

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MRP Week 2 Review: Volatility Sticks Around

May 16, 2025
By 
Brady Yauch & Brendan Callery & Tyama Lyall

The second full week of the post-Market Renewal Program (MRP) has passed and a number of trends from the first week remained in place.

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MRP Market Review: Week 1

May 9, 2025
By 
Brady Yauch & Brendan Callery & Tyama Lyall

The IESO’s Market Renewal Program (MRP) has officially launched and completed its first week. According to the IESO’s MRP implementation plan, the full transition to MRP is now complete.

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